Political Time Bomb Burma
Carole Reckinger - September 2007 (published Forum 270)
Despite an increasingly bloody crackdown, the peaceful sea of chanting monks in maroon robes continues to fill the streets of Burma’s major cities. The number of injured monks is rising, and it has been reported that large numbers of monks and protesters have been dragged away in trucks to unknown locations. The once confident and repressive military regime has been shaken by a wave of peaceful demonstrations led by thousands of monks. The protests were sparked earlier this summer by the regime’s decision to sharply increase fuel prices. The stakes for the military regime are rising as every day the number of people willing to risk their lives and join the protests is growing. The key question is how the regime will respond to the growing challenge to its authority: will it repeat a 1988-like crackdown, or will it solve the present deadlock with the least bloodshed possible? The repressive record of the Burmese army, and the junta’s warnings to senior monks that strong ‘action’ will be taken (despite growing media attention worldwide), makes the first option look increasingly likely.
A reminder of 1988
The large numbers of protesters and the prospects of a bloody crackdown by the military regime make for a chilling reminder of the summer of 1988. On the 8th of August of that year, protests by thousands of people calling for democracy culminated in a bloodbath by the Junta. Over three thousand people were killed, and in the following months the army consolidated its power base. An unknown number of people were executed, put in labor camps or simply disappeared. Two years later, in May 1990, the first elections since the military takeover in 1962 took place. The reportedly free and fair elections led to a landslide victory for the National League for Democracy led by Nobel Peace Prize Laureate Aung San Suu Kyi. The junta has up to now ignored the electoral results, and instead persecuted, killed and put under house arrest candidates, members and followers of the party.
Sons of Buddha
Burmese monks are highly revered in Burmese society. Considered to be ‘Sons of Buddha’ they represent the strongest institution in Burma after the military. Burma’s young and active Sangha Buddhist community of about 300,000 has had an uneasy relationship with the ruling generals. During the 1988 democracy marches, the independent monks union emerged to support the students. The regime responded by issuing decrees to keep the monks in line, and banning all independent Buddhist organizations. Until a week ago, when underground monk unions called for a mass uprising, the monks observed a religious boycott of the regime. Over the last two decades they have refused alms from the military regime or simply overturned their bowls instead of collecting food and donations.
Under the repressive military rule, civil society has had little space in which to develop. Because of the high levels of repression, most activists, in the past, have retreated into passivity, hoping that somehow change will come without the need to take risks. From 1962, the military regime slowly co-opted or eliminated the backbone of civil society: there are no legal human rights groups in Burma, the media is extremely restricted, and strict censorship is instituted. Access to communication technology is very limited. In 2001, there were only 5.5 telephone lines per 1000 people, with the cost of cellular phones being prohibitively high. The military regime has been as well extremely reluctant to provide e-mail and internet access. Anyone caught possessing a computer fax/modem or fax machine without permission can be sentenced to seven to fifteen years in prison.
The regime has been very concerned about the emergence of independent politically minded groups which could develop an action program. Intelligence gathering capabilities have been expanded in order to prevent domestic upheavals. An extensive network of agents and informers has developed to monitor campuses, monasteries and even military posts. The main goal is to isolate and demoralize activists, and also punish those who continue to associate with them. The repressive control of the regime however, has been challenged by the monks. Despite the highly restricted access to communication technology and the oppressive climate, the monks managed to coordinate and organize the largest protests that Burma has seen in the past 20 years. Both the pro democracy protests in 1988 and the current street protests are a reminder to the ruling party that they will not be able to repress their people for ever and that their power is contested. Indeed, no matter how they will react to the protests, their end might be approaching faster than they wish to think.
The end of the Tatmadaw?
The Burmese army – the Tatmadaw – has a long history of repression. Since the declaration of independence in 1948, different ethnic groups have demanded independence or more autonomy – often through violent insurgencies. The SPDC, as its predecessor, rules with an authoritarian fist in pursuit of two main objectives: maintenance of national solidarity and the Union, and perpetuation of national sovereignty. When the highly mobile counterinsurgency army for instance confronted pro-democracy protesters in 1988, it came to see them in the same light as the insurgent enemies it fought over the last 40 years- as a threat to national unity.
Historically the Tatmadaw has remained remarkably unified by Asian standards. While over the last half century the officer corps in Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines has been periodically torn apart by factionalism, the Burmese military leadership has not yet faced serious challenges from within its ranks. This, however, could change rapidly if the end of the regime seems imminent.
There have been several reports that the generals are gearing up for action. It has been reported that troops dressed as monks acting as agent provocateurs have been dispatched. With growing media attention, however, the shooting of peacefully marching Buddhist monks could mean the end for the junta. The public outrage that would ensue might pressure their few remaining allies to distance themselves. In fact, many observers believe that Burma has so far been cautious because of pressure from its most important trading ally: China. A bloody act of repression by one of its regional allies would overshadow China’s long awaited Olympic showcase next year.
Peaceful resolution of the situation might prove to be hoping for too much. Burma has shown in the past that it cares very little about public opinion. The fact that Aung San Suu Kyi was transferred from house arrest to the notorious Insein jail shows that the junta feels increasingly cornered and might take decisions with disastrous consequences. By the time of writing the situation was volatile but still under control. Considering past actions of the junta, a 1988-like crackdown does not seem impossible. No matter what the upcoming responses of the generals will be, the peacefully marching monks have made a deep impression on the foreign press and global civil society. The end of one of the most repressive dictatorial regime might yet come soon.
Leave a Reply